Oscar Night Predictions

oscar-predictions

It’s that time of year again. That time where every weekend your hockey game, favourite show, or whatever is bumped because of yet another film award extravaganza. I’ve read and heard a lot of complaining about this time of the year but I have to say it is one of my favourites. Anyone who knows me knows that I LOVE movies. I like seeing all the celebrities getting together and celebrating their work in storytelling and film making.

I have watched both the Golden Globes and the SAG Awards this year and I have watched the Oscars every year for as long as I can remember. I haven’t always agreed with the Academy’s decisions (*cough* Kathryn Bigelow over James Cameron *cough*) and I find that they tend to go towards the shock factor or the record setter over who maybe deserved the award more.

I don’t always get a chance to see all of the movies before the awards, but this year I came prepared. I have seen most of the big ones this year and it is a really good year, every one of the movies blew me away. It is a tough choice for some of the categories but I also think that there were a lot of performances that were overlooked by the Academy this year. So in this post I am going to lay down my predictions, my best explanations as to why, and my list of who should have been recognized this year instead. I am going to stick to the bigger categories here as I am not that great at predicting cinematography, editing, etc. Off we go…

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Best Supporting Actress

url-9I am going to start with this one because it is my weakest decision maker. I have only seen three of the five performances nominated: Sally Field (Lincoln), Anne Hathaway (Les Miserables), and Jacki Weaver (Silver Lining Playbook). I really did feel for Weaver’s character in Silver Linings, unfortunately, I don’t think that this role was as strong as Field’s or Hathaway’s. I think that Anne Hathaway is going to win it, even though she was really only in the movie for about 15 minutes. But I would really like to see Sally Field win this one, we haven’t seen her in a long time and she was a powerful force in this movie, I wish she was in it a little bit longer.

My Personal Choice: Sally Field
Predicted Academy Choice: Anne Hathaway

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Best Supporting Actor

waltzThis one is much easier for me to decide, although it is a power house group of actors. The only one that I haven’t seen here is Philip Seymour Hoffman’s performance in The Master, which could be the wild card because I have heard unreal things about the acting in that movie. Now I really liked Alan Arkin in Argo, Robert De Niro is always good, and I have always had a bit of a soft spot for my pal Tommy Lee Jones, but I don’t think that their performances were quite Oscar level this year. That and they were all blown out of the water by Christoph Waltz in Django Unchained. Two minutes into the movie I was hooked on his character. I have nothing left to say here… I am 150% on my decision here.

My Personal Choice: Christoph Waltz
Predicted Academy Choice: Christoph Waltz

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Best Actress

url-4 This is another rough category for me and probably my least educated decision, the women are giving me a hard time. I have only seen two of the five nominated performances, so I am going off what I know and what I have read. I know very little about Quvenzhane Wallis and Emmanuelle Riva or their roles in their films (Beasts of the Southern Wild and Amour), and I haven’t heard much about Naomi Watts’ performance in The Impossible. So it’s between Jessica Chastain (Zero Dark Thirty) and Jennifer Lawrence (Silver Linings Playbook). Both of these women owned their films, Chastain carried her film from beginning to end, and Lawrence really broke out and showed what she was capable of. I would really like to see Jennifer Lawrence take this, but the Academy might give Chastain the controversy vote. Either way it is a well deserved award.

My Personal Choice: Jennifer Lawrence
Predicted Academy Choice: Jessica Chastain

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Best Actor

day-lewisI have only seen three of the five performances in this category but I know this one is a slam dunk. I haven’t seen either of Denzel Washington’s or Joaquin Phoenix’s performances (Flight and The Master). Hugh Jackman’s nomination makes more sense to me as he was in ALL of Les Miserables and did a good job. If Silver Linings Playbook came out in any other year I think that Bradley Cooper could take this, he did an amazing job with his role. However, this movie came out in the same year as a Daniel Day-Lewis movie so the odds are just not in his favour. Daniel Day-Lewis owns every movie he is in and his performance as Lincoln is no exception. Now I am 200% on this one, no question Day-Lewis will take this one.

My Personal Choice: Daniel Day-Lewis
Predicted Academy Choice: Daniel Day-Lewis

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Best Director

url-5I think that this category is a little messy. In my opinion there have been some very large oversights and the right people aren’t where they should be. I haven’t seen all of the nominations so I can’t say for sure. It might happen that either Benh Zeitlin (Beasts of the Southern Wild) or Michael Haneke (Amour) will take this category. David O. Russell told an inspirational story with Silver Lining Playbook, and Ang Lee beautifully told a story that I didn’t think could be made into a film (Life of Pi). But, of the choices of nominees this year I think that the Oscar should go to Steven Spielberg for Lincoln. He took on a lot while developing this film and I think that he deserves the recognition.

My Personal Choice: Steven Spielberg
Predicted Academy Choice: Benh Zeitlin

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Best Picture

url-10This is one of this year’s toughest categories, there is a great collection of films here. I have two wild cards out of nine on this category, Amour and Beasts of the Southern Wild. Argo really surprised me, it was a lot better than I anticipated, Life of Pi told a great story and Lincoln was a power house for acting. I think as far as bringing everything together and having a storyline that is important to the lives of people in the world today I think that it has to be between Silver Linings Playbook and Zero Dark Thirty for me. Silver Linings Playbook touches on the topic of mental illness while Zero Dark Thirty tells a story that had an impact on the entire world. Zero Dark Thirty was good but I think that most of the hype was due to the controversy surrounding it. So my vote here goes to Silver Linings Playbook for the Best Picture win.

My Personal Choice: Silver Linings Playbook
Predicted Academy Choice: Beasts of the Southern Wild

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Who should have been recognized… 

This year there were a few disappointments in a few of the categories but my main concerns come through in the Best Director and the Best Acting nominations.

url-11Directing: Although the category is fairly strong and I feel that Spielberg is an excellent director, I think that he is not sharing proper company in this category. Three big names are missing from this year’s directing category. Ben Affleck, something that I never thought I would say, but he did an excellent job with Argo and did not receive the proper recognition. Quentin Tarantino to me is a very large oversight. I don’t think that he would have won in this category for Django Unchained, considering the other films nominated but I do think that he deserved a nomination. And finally, Kathryn Bigelow, I don’t think that I would have wanted to see her win but I think that a nomination is due for Zero Dark Thirty. She told a very touchy story in an almost tasteful way, if that’s possible with this kind of thing. I am not sure if I agree with her telling it so soon after the fact but that being done I think that she deserves a nod.

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bardemBest Actor: This category definitely has a few people missing from it in my opinion. First is Leonardo DiCaprio for his role in Django Unchained. Again, as with those that I mentioned above, I don’t think that he would have won for this role but he was a different character from what we are used to and pulled it off nicely. A nomination was definitely in order for this performance. And finally, my biggest nomination disappointment of the year. I know that they aren’t going to nominate a James Bond movie at the Oscars. However, Skyfall pulled out all the stops for being the 50th anniversary film and Javier Bardem was ROBBED in not being nominated for Supporting Actor. Had he been nominated my vote would have definitely changed and he is the only change I would make that would have actually won. He is the creepiest Bond bad guy out there and he was unbelievable in Skyfall.

Now, after that very long post, I feel that I should mention that I am not an expert on these things. I rarely agree with critics on films and weird things attract me to different movies. I know that a lot of people may disagree with my choices but I did the best I could with what I have seen and just wanted to share who I think deserves recognition for their performances in their career. The Academy Awards are going to be aired on February 24, 2013 in the evening. If you want to see the full list of nominations check out the official list here. Next week I will follow up with what actually happened and see if I was on my game even a little bit. Enjoy the awards!

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One thought on “Oscar Night Predictions

  1. Pingback: Oscar Predictions 2014 | Erin Hueston

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